New data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) confirms a dramatic reduction in temporary resident arrivals in early 2026, with new student and worker permit issuances down 72% compared to the same period in 2024. The figures reflect the compounding effect of multiple federal policy measures now fully in force, and signal a fundamental shift in how Canada is managing its temporary resident population.

New Arrival Numbers at a Glance

Permit Type	February 2026 Issuances
Study Permits	2,135
Work Permits	10,375
Year-over-Year Decline (vs. early 2024)	72%

The January 2026 data, published by IRCC on Canada.ca, shows a similar trajectory: new student arrivals were down 37% year-over-year compared to January 2025, with 7,040 study permits issued against 11,215 in January 2025. New worker arrivals fell 20% over the same comparison, from approximately 14,880 to 11,850. The steeper decline when measured against 2024 reflects that 2025 itself saw a 53% reduction in total arrivals relative to 2024.

Policy Measures Driving the Decline

The contraction is a direct result of deliberate federal intervention across multiple programs:

The international student cap, introduced in 2024, imposed annual limits on new study permit issuances and has been reduced further for 2026 and 2027 under the 2026 to 2028 Immigration Levels Plan. The 10% cap on low-wage temporary foreign worker hiring has constrained employer access to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program in sectors with significant domestic labour availability. Spousal open work permit eligibility was tightened, limiting work authorization for spouses of international students and certain temporary foreign workers. The 2026 to 2028 Levels Plan targets 155,000 new international student arrivals and 230,000 new temporary worker arrivals for 2026, down from a combined 673,650 new temporary resident arrivals in 2025.

Inventory Lag and What It Means in Practice

IRCC has noted publicly that while new arrivals have dropped sharply, the total number of individuals currently in Canada on study or work permits remains elevated due to the continued processing of applications submitted under previous rules. As of January 31, 2026, approximately 460,695 individuals held only a study permit, down from 603,295 a year earlier, while approximately 1.48 million held only a work permit. IRCC has confirmed that reductions in the total permit-holder population will continue to materialize over time as fewer new permits are issued and existing permits expire.

Practitioner Implications

Advisors working with employer clients in low-wage sectors must account for the ongoing 10% cap when assessing TFW Program options. Study permit clients should be counselled on the reality of a highly competitive intake environment, with emphasis on DLI selection, acceptance letter integrity requirements, and financial threshold compliance. For clients nearing the end of study or work authorization, transitions to permanent residence through Express Entry and the Provincial Nominee Program — particularly for those with Canadian work experience — remain the most reliable pathways given current volumes.

IRCC’s official data on student and worker arrivals is published and updated monthly at Canada.ca.

Stay Current on Study Permits and PGWPs

Join Andrew Carvajal and Miho Kitamura for Study Permit Applications, Accompanying Family Members and Post Graduate Work 2026 on June 10, 2026 — a five-hour course covering study permit applications, accompanying family member considerations, and post-graduation work eligibility under current IRCC rules. Register here.

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